The 2027 Medicare Numbers Are Published: What a Florida Plan Will Actually Cost

Data current: October 8, 2026 · Florida · 13 min read

In September I wrote about 2027 Medicare costs using projections, and said plainly which figures were still estimates. On October 1 the estimates stopped being estimates: CMS published the full 2027 plan landscape and Medicare.gov switched over to next year's plans.

So here are the real numbers. And the first thing they show is that the national headline — average Medicare Advantage premiums falling more than 16% — does not describe Florida at all.

I am Vivian Soto, an independent bilingual insurance agent at VS Healthcare Solutions in Orlando. Enrollment runs October 15 to December 7. This is what a 2027 plan will actually cost a Florida household, which numbers decide that, and which one nobody has yet.

The national headline, and the Florida footnote

CMS announced that the weighted average Medicare Advantage premium will drop from $14.37 a month in 2026 to $12 in 2027 — a 16.5% decline. For plans that include drug coverage, the Part D portion of the premium falls from $11.32 to about $7, a 38% cut.

Then there is the Florida state fact sheet, published the same day, which says something different.

Florida's average went up about 16% while the national average went down about 16%. Both statements are true, and neither one is bad news.

The reason is that Florida was never paying the national average. At $1.83 a month, the typical Florida Medicare Advantage premium was already rounding to nothing. There was no room to fall. A thirty-cent increase on a nearly-free premium is noise, not a cost problem.

Which is the real lesson of the 2027 numbers: in Florida, the premium is not where the money is. CMS confirms that 100% of Floridians with Medicare have access to a plan with a $0 monthly premium. If you shop on premium alone in this state, you will find a dozen plans tied at zero and learn nothing about which one is right for you.

Drug plans: the spike people feared did not arrive

The bigger open question going into October was standalone Part D. Those premiums had been held down since 2025 by a federal demonstration program, and the demonstration winds down. The worry was a sharp correction.

It did not happen, at least not at the average.

Less than a dollar on the national average. And in Florida, CMS reports that 52.69% of people in a standalone drug plan can get a plan that costs less than what they paid in 2026 — if they look.

That last clause is the whole point. Half of Florida's drug-plan members could pay less next year, and most of them will not, because staying put requires no action and switching requires an hour. Auto-renewal is the most expensive button in Medicare, and it is the one that gets pressed by default.

One more Florida figure worth knowing: 23.50% of Floridians in a standalone drug plan receive Extra Help, the federal subsidy that cuts drug costs sharply. If your income is modest and you are not one of them, that is worth checking before you compare anything else — see how Extra Help and the Medicare Savings Programs work.

The numbers that actually decide your year

If the premium is nearly zero either way, what determines whether 2027 costs you $800 or $8,000?

These, in roughly this order of importance.

The $2,400 cap is the single best thing in Medicare right now, and it is easy to undervalue because it only matters if you need it. Before 2025 there was no limit at all on what Part D could cost you in a year. A cancer drug or a biologic could run to five figures. Now the arithmetic stops at $2,400, and it stops for everyone, in every plan.

What the cap does not do is make plans interchangeable. Two plans can both honour the $2,400 ceiling and get you there along completely different paths — one charging a $700 deductible and 25% of a tier-4 drug, the other charging nothing up front and a flat copay. If you reach the cap, you end up in the same place. If you do not, you can pay hundreds of dollars more in one plan than the other for exactly the same prescriptions.

And the number that caps a bad year

Medicare Advantage has a second ceiling that gets far less attention than the drug cap: the plan's maximum out-of-pocket, which limits what you can spend on medical care — hospital stays, surgery, specialists — in a calendar year.

Every Medicare Advantage plan has one. CMS sets the highest figure a plan is allowed to use and republishes it each year; the limits for 2027 went up again. But the ceiling CMS allows is not the number you care about. The number you care about is the one your plan chose, and plans vary enormously — some sit at a few thousand dollars, others sit close to the legal maximum.

It is printed in your Annual Notice of Change, and it is the honest answer to “what is my worst case?” A $0-premium plan with a high out-of-pocket maximum is not cheap. It is a bet that you will not have a bad year.

Original Medicare, for comparison, has no out-of-pocket maximum at all — which is the main reason people buy a Medigap supplement alongside it.

The one number nobody has yet

There is a gap in every 2027 cost estimate you will read this month, including this one: the 2027 Part B premium has not been announced.

Part B is the piece almost everyone pays, usually deducted from Social Security, and for most households it is far larger than any plan premium in this article. CMS normally announces it in November, after open enrollment has already opened.

You will see projections. The Medicare Trustees publish one, and various sites quote it as though it were settled. It is not. Nobody — including CMS — has the 2027 figure yet, and the final number has differed from the projection before.

What that means practically: you can compare plans now with confidence, because the plan-level numbers are published and final. Just do not build a household budget around a Part B figure somebody projected. Wait for the announcement, which will land well before your January 1 start date.

Fewer plans, which changes the shopping

Cost is not the only thing that moved. Florida goes from 611 Medicare Advantage plans in 2026 to 560 in 2027 — the largest drop of any state. Nationally the count barely changed, from 5,553 to 5,532, so this is a Florida story, not a national one.

Access itself is fine: CMS reports 100% of Floridians with Medicare have access to a Medicare Advantage plan, and 100% have access to one at $0 premium. Across the country, more than 99% of beneficiaries have access to at least one MA plan and 97% have ten or more choices.

But fifty-one fewer plans means a real chance that the specific plan you have today is not on the 2027 list. CMS also notes that roughly eight in ten current Medicare Advantage members can keep their plan at the same or a lower premium — which is reassuring for eight, and is exactly the problem for the other two. I wrote about how to check which group you are in, in Spanish, here.

Supplemental benefits: two true statements

CMS says supplemental benefits — dental, vision and hearing — are “expected to remain stable” for 2027. Trade press reports that several large carriers are trimming exactly those extras.

Both can be true. A national average holds steady while individual plans cut. That is what an average does.

Which is why the grocery card, the dental allowance, the transportation benefit and the Part B giveback in your plan cannot be looked up in a press release. They are in your ANOC, line by line, with this year's figure beside next year's. If you have thrown it out, your plan will send another copy.

Your calendar

Note the ordering problem: enrollment closes on December 7, and the Part B announcement typically arrives before that but after the window has already opened. Plan comparisons do not depend on it. Budgets do.

Frequently asked questions

Are 2027 Medicare premiums going up or down?

Both, depending on which premium and where. Nationally the average Medicare Advantage premium falls from $14.37 to $12 a month. In Florida the average rises from $1.83 to $2.13, because Florida premiums were already close to zero. Standalone drug plan premiums rise by less than a dollar nationally, from $35.09 to about $36.

What is the Part D out-of-pocket cap for 2027?

$2,400. Once your covered drug spending for the year reaches that figure, you pay nothing more for covered Part D drugs for the rest of the calendar year. The cap was $2,000 in 2025 and $2,100 in 2026, and it is written into law and indexed annually.

How much is the 2027 Part D deductible?

The maximum a plan may charge is $700, up from $615 in 2026. That is a ceiling, not a standard amount — plans can and do charge less, and some charge no deductible at all.

What will the 2027 Part B premium be?

CMS has not announced it. The figure is normally released in November. Projections are circulating, including one in the Medicare Trustees Report, but no 2027 Part B premium is official yet and the final figure has differed from projections in past years.

Can I get a $0 premium Medicare Advantage plan in Florida?

Yes. CMS reports that 100% of Floridians with Medicare have access to a Medicare Advantage plan with a $0 monthly premium for 2027. A $0 premium does not mean $0 cost — the plan still has copays, a deductible in some cases, and a maximum out-of-pocket limit.

Could I save money by switching drug plans?

Quite possibly. CMS reports that 52.69% of Floridians in a standalone drug plan have access to a plan with a lower premium than they paid in 2026. Premium is only part of total cost, so compare your actual medication list against each plan's formulary rather than comparing premiums alone.

Why does Florida have fewer plans in 2027?

Florida drops from 611 Medicare Advantage plans to 560, the largest decline of any state, as several large carriers withdraw plans from specific counties. Florida has more Medicare Advantage members than any other state, so it has more plans to cut. Every Floridian with Medicare still has access to a plan.

Does working with an agent cost extra?

No. Independent agents are paid a commission by the carrier, and that commission is already built into the plan premium whether you enrol by yourself or with help. Your premium is identical either way. If you would rather not speak to an agent at all, Florida's SHINE program offers free, unbiased counselling at 1-800-96-ELDER.

What comparing plans on total cost actually looks like

The work is not complicated, it is just tedious, which is why most people skip it and renew.

You take your medication list — exact names, exact doses — and your doctors, and your county. Then for each plan still available to you, you check four things: is every drug on the formulary, at what tier, with what restrictions; is every doctor in network for 2027, confirmed by the doctor's office rather than the plan's directory; what is the deductible; and what is the maximum out-of-pocket. Then you add up the year.

Done properly for a household on five or six prescriptions, that is a couple of hours and a dozen phone calls. Done in the first week of December, it is guesswork, because the people you need to reach are busy with everyone else who waited.

That is the entire argument for doing this in October. You can see how we help with Medicare, or reach me directly.

1. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. “Medicare Advantage and Medicare Prescription Drug Programs Expected to Remain Stable in 2027” — press release, 28 September 2026. Average MA premium $14.37 to $12.00; MA-PD Part D premium $11.32 to $7; standalone PDP average $35.09 to $36; access and enrollment figures; supplemental benefit stability.
2. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. “Medicare Open Enrollment in Florida, 2027” — state-by-state fact sheet, 28 September 2026. Florida average MA premium $1.83 to $2.13; 560 plans in 2027 versus 611 in 2026; 5,334,437 Florida Medicare enrollees; 100% access to an MA plan and to a $0-premium MA plan; 11 standalone drug plans; lowest PDP premium $5.30; 52.69% with access to a lower-premium drug plan; 23.50% receiving Extra Help.
3. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. Contract Year 2027 Medicare Advantage and Part D final rule and Part D benefit parameters — $2,400 annual out-of-pocket threshold and $700 maximum deductible for 2027.
4. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. Part D national average monthly bid amount and base beneficiary premium for 2027, released 28 July 2026 — base beneficiary premium $41.33, up from $38.99.
5. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. Announcement of Calendar Year 2027 Medicare Advantage Capitation Rates and Part C and Part D Payment Policies, 6 April 2026 — maximum out-of-pocket and cost-sharing limit calculations for 2027.
6. Medicare.gov Plan Finder — 2027 plan data available from 1 October 2026.
7. Florida Department of Elder Affairs. SHINE program, 1-800-96-ELDER.

About the Author

Vivian Soto

Licensed Bilingual Insurance Agent — Orlando, FL

Vivian Soto is a Florida-licensed bilingual (English/Spanish) insurance agent serving families across Orange, Osceola, Seminole, Hillsborough, and Miami-Dade counties. She specializes in the ACA Marketplace, Medicare, life insurance, and supplemental coverage — having filed 500+ ACA applications for Florida families and maintained a 91% renewal retention rate. She works directly with 40+ top carriers including Florida Blue, UnitedHealthcare, Humana, Aetna, and Mutual of Omaha.

500+ ACA Apps Filed 91% Retention Rate Bilingual EN/ES 40+ Carriers

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